HE BELIEVES MARKETS ARE ORDERLY NOT RANDOM, SO DO I
CHARLES NENNER, Dutch economist and market strategist, appears occassionally on CNBC with predictions on major market moves and strategies. He often predicts the exact time to the day when to get in or out. In late 2007, Nenner predicted that 2008 would be a very rough and volatile year for stocks. What an understatement! He nailed that one for a big cigar.
Now Nenner is talking about a short market rally that's imminent. He appeared again on CNBC two days ago with a new prediction: It's time to get back into the market by the end of this week and make some money on the short rally that will take place until the middle of March. He thinks the S&P will go to 1,000 (It's now at 846).
Since I can't seem to embed the video here, I'll give you the link . Think it's well worth a look-see. And another group of Nenner videos in which he talks about his methodology is here. Nenner, whose done this for Goldman Sachs for years, thinks there will be a short time of rally of hope. But after the middle of March, he sees another broad sell-off.
Hey, I'm grateful for even small bits of hope in this mess. Let's watch and see if he's correct. As a student of the markets and the psychology of greed and fear, I think Nenner will be proven right.
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
10 comments:
Yeah... Uh, so did he predict the market was going to go DOWN about 10% FIRST before this big upswing that was to start about 2 weeks ago and end on March 9th (nope!)? I'm sure when he next appears on TV his "cycle" chart will be fudged to show how right he was!!! He claims to never have been off by more than a day... well, there's always a first time.
CNBC needs to have Nenner on again and call him on his error!
On Feb 16th, he published a chart of I-Shares S&P 500 that shows the correlation to his cycles. The only problem is the Nov 20th S&P low shows on his chart as ~Dec 12th, so it looks like the S&P chart is shifted rightward in order to line up with his cycles chart. If it were lined up properly, there would be almost no correlation between his cycles and the S&P. I'm not saying he is always wrong, but I am saying this particular chart is misleading and causes me to doubt all the rest of his stuff!
Thanks for your comments. It appears that Nenner was wrong here.
In the early February '09 CNBC interview, Nenner told Mark Haines that his forecasts were "never wrong." Interesting. And in a Bloomberg interview at about the same time Nenner stated that crude oil would rally within the next few weeks. That, too, did not happen.
He was praised multiple times for being right 'to the date' and he kept quite obviously agreeing. However, when asked about the exact date of the start of the rally he looked confused and couldn't answer! From the short-term cycle's chart he presented it seems the start date was 2/6, as it was printed on top of that chart.
His exact words:"...in a few days it starts to rally and tops around middle of March.." referring to Feb 6 date as start of rally date.
In some message boards his pumpers are claiming that he was right since we have had a 'rally' on Feb 6 and he meant that as a short-term rally.
In my view he is a con artist and his charts etc. are fake. And notice carefully, he never said that he was wrong on his predictions, just wrong on the exact date by 1 day atmost.
However, checking out his past predictions shows that he is almost never wrong. A liar and a con man!
S&P is down about 20% since then in a short 3 weeks' priod in one of the fastest slides in modern era.
Result is out!
At end of Feb 5, S&P was at 845.85. At end of today (March 9) S&P stood at 676.53. He said a rally from Feb 6 to march 9 for S&P to 1000.
He said a rally of about 20% and we got a sell-off of 20%. In about a month.
I have no doubt that after a few months he will be back on CNBC claiming that he is never wrong.
I saw a previous CNBC video and CNBC asked him in his 20+ years has he ever got any trade wrong. He paused for a few seconds apparently trying to think of one and finally declared 'no.'
He is con artist and a liar and he has no methods for prediction.
he took his incorrect feb 2009 predictions off his website. what a devious prick nenner is.
Once in awhile in a cycle the opposite will occur. Notice that his March 9th top was instead a bottom. I kept this in mind and entered buys during March 10-12th.
His current top is forecast for May 20-21st. Looks like he will be right this time. Lesson: look for market clues at cycle peaks.
Nenner is back! On Yahoo's tech ticker is is claiming that how he called the rally to about 1000. (He just forgot to tell us that he was 180 degrees off.) Heading of the article is 'He Called the 2007 Top and Recent Rally, Now Charles Nenner Sees Trouble Ahead for Stocks'. What a scam artist!
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/267617/He-Called-the-2007-Top-and-Recent-Rally-Now-Charles-Nenner-Sees-Trouble-Ahead-for-Stocks?tickers=%5EDJI,%5Egspc,%5EIXIC?sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
Post a Comment