Monday, June 20, 2016

The Waning of Trump, Hillary's Warren Conundrum and What's Next With Brexit?

IT'S MONDAY MORNING and the stock market is rocking big time on an otherwise slow news day. What's behind all this stock optimism?

First, the Brexit vote seems to be tilting towards Britain remaining in the doomed EU after MP Jo Cox's horrific murder last week. Markets like things to stay the way they are, however bad they may remain in the long run.

Second factor is the recent abysmal presidential poll numbers indicating Trump's falling behind in the voting public's perception. At least for now, the love affair with Trump is ebbing again. On top of that, Trump has fired his campaign manager Corey Lewandowski over the weekend perhaps to begin a new chapter in his chaotic campaign for the White House.

I hate to say it, but I now think for the 50th time that Trump won't be president this go-round. I also hate to say that while I'm in favor of Brexit, I think the fraddy cats in the UK will last-minute vote to stay in the bosom of the behemoth and ultimately doomed European least for now.

One wild card that can change everything is if Hillary chooses Senator Elizabeth Warren to be her running mate at the Democratic convention. Markets will have an absolute tantrum and there's no telling where the election will go from there. No one I know likes Hillary. But Warren is universally despised.

While anything can still happen from here,  it doesn't look good for Trump or Brexit from my vantage point. As usual,  I hope I'm really, really wrong.

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